Romney wins the popular vote
High unemployment has brought down many presidents, and it will bring down Obama. No president in modern times has been re-elected with unemployment higher than 7.7%. October unemployment numbers, which came out today, are 7.9%. This is an increase from last month and higher than when Obama took office.
Every political organization takes a poll to see who people will vote for. Some polls are better than others, and their accuracy depends on how they see the percentage breakdown of the electorate. This year, the voters seem to be about 35% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 30% Independents. The most consistently accurate poll in 2008 was the Rasmussen poll. So, it makes sense to draw conclusions about 2012 voting trends from only Rasmussen.
Today, November 2, Rasmussen has Obama and Romney with 48% each, 3% are undecided and 1% are voting for someone else. It would appear the candidates are tied at 48%. But, the 3% undecided have to vote for someone and they will vote for Romney. Any pollster will tell you the challenger always gets the majority of the undecided votes. Romney will get about 51% of the popular vote.
Some have suggested Romney will win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College vote. This is, statistically speaking, very unlikely. Winning the popular vote and losing the electoral vote is an anomaly which has only happened four times out of two hundred and twenty elections. If Obama is polling less than 49%; he is losing the state’s electoral votes. The undecided voter will vote for Romney.
People always “vote their pocketbook.” This election is no different and the economy is what people care about. Although it will be close on Election Day, Romney will win the popular vote. Because Obama is below 49% in many of the "Swing States," Romney will win the electoral vote; also. Romney will be the 45th President of America.